Analisis Kausalitas Multivariat Dinamis Hubungan Pariwisata - Pembangunan Ekonomi Menggunakan Pendekatan ARDL: Perspektif Kebijakan Pariwisata di Indonesia

Nurtsaniyah Octaviani, Luthfi Ibnu Tsani

Abstract


This study aims to analyze the integration of the Indonesian tourism sector with other sectors and its impact on economic development in Indonesia. The method used is a quantitative Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) data analysis approach using time series data for the period 1985-2024. The results of the study indicate that the tourism sector has a significant positive effect on economic growth and oil energy consumption per capita in the short and long term. The tourism sector does not show a significant effect on coffee consumption in the short term and has a significant positive effect in the long term. Tourism shows an insignificant negative effect on foreign investment (PMA) in the short term, but in the long term its effect becomes insignificantly positive. Meanwhile, the tourism sector does not show a significant effect on the number of poor people in the short term, but has a significant negative effect on the number of poor people in the long term. Therefore, an integrated and consistent policy is needed to ensure the sustainability and competitiveness of the tourism sector in economic development in Indonesia.

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis integrasi sektor pariwisata Indonesia dengan sektor lain serta dampaknya terhadap pembangunan ekonomi di Indonesia. Metode yang digunakan adalah kuantitatif pendekatan analisis data Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) yang menggunakan data time series periode 1985-2024. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sektor pariwisata berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan konsumsi energi minyak per kapita dalam jangka pendek maupun panjang. Sektor pariwisata tidak menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan terhadap konsumsi kopi dalam jangka pendek dan memiliki pengaruh positif signifikan dalam jangka panjang. Pariwisata menunjukkan pengaruh negatif tidak signifikan terhadap penanaman modal asing (PMA) dalam jangka pendek, namun dalam jangka panjang pengaruhnya menjadi positif tidak signifikan. Sementara itu, sektor pariwisata tidak menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan terhadap jumlah penduduk miskin dalam jangka pendek, tetapi memberikan pengaruh negatif signifikan jumlah penduduk miskin dalam jangka panjang. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan kebijakan terpadu dan konsisten untuk memastikan keberlanjutan serta daya saing sektor pariwisata dalam pembangunan ekonomi di Indonesia.


Keywords


Pariwisata; pembangunan ekonomi; kemiskinan; ARDL

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.37058/wlfr.v6i1.14528

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