Efisiensi Pasar Valuta Asing di Indonesia: Analisis Empiris

Ignatia Bintang Filia Dei Susilo, Dian Pujiatma Vera Subchanifa, Risna Amalia Hamzah, Dwi Hastuti Lestari Komarlina

Abstract


This study will examine the efficiency of foreign exchange market in Indonesia is it efficient in the weak form or semi-strong form, and see its implications in Indonesia. This study used data of the Rupiah’s spot market exchange rate with US Dollar (USD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro, Singapore Dollar (SGD), and Japanese Yen (JPY), from March 2017 to March 2022, taken from Bank Indonesia. Weak form of market efficiency is analyzed using the unit root test to determine whether the data follows a random walk or not. Semi-strong form efficiency is analyzed using cointegration test, Engle-Granger, Johansen, and variance decomposition analysis. Results indicate that the foreign exchange market in Indonesia has weak form. Players in the market can still use fundamental analysis to determine the next exchange rate movement in order for players to make a profit, which is more relevant to consider than historical data.

Studi ini akan menelaah efisiensi pasar valuta asing di Indonesia. Apakah efisien dalam bentuk lemah atau semi-kuat, serta melihat bagaimana implikasinya di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah nilai tukar Rupiah dengan mata uang lima negara lain; Dolar Amerika (USD), Dolar Australia (AUD), Euro, Dolar Singapura (SGD), dan Yen Jepang (JPY), di pasar spot periode Maret 2017 – Maret 2022 yang diambil dari Bank Indonesia. Bentuk efisiensi pasar lemah dianalisis mengunakan unit root test untuk mengetahui apakah data mengalami random walk atau tidak. Adanya unit root mengindikasikan bahwa perilaku data tidak stasioner. Bentuk efisiensi semi-kuat dianalisis menggunakan uji kointegrasi, Engle-Granger, Johansen, dan variance decomposition analysis. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pasar valuta asing di Indonesia termasuk dalam bentuk efisien lemah. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa pemain di pasar valuta asing masih dapat menggunakan analisis fundamental yang lebih relevan sebagai pertimbangan dibandingkan data historis untuk menentukan pergerakan kurs selanjutnya agar pemain memperoleh keuntungan.


Keywords


Efficient Market Hypothesis; Pasar Valuta Asing; Indonesia.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.37058/wlfr.v3i1.4794

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