FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DI KOTA PADANG

Abstract

This study aims to determine 1) the effect of economic growth on the open unemployment rate, 2) the effect of the inflation rate on the open unemployment rate 3) the effect of the minimum wage on the open unemployment rate, 4) the effect of the human development index on the open unemployment rate. This type of research used in this research is associative research. The type of data used is secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of West Sumatra with the amount of data for 10 years from 2010-2019. The analytical method used is the Autoregression-Moving Average (ARMA). The results showed that: (1) First,economic growth in 1 period (year) previously affected the open Unemployment Ratefor the next 3 periods (years) which was determined by the coefficient value of 0.999846 with a tstatistic value of 1.893209 > t table 1.94318. This means that the inflation rate changes by 1%, it will increase the open unemployment rate by 0.999846. (2) Second,the inflation rate in the previous 2 years has an effect on the Open unemployment rate for the next 4 periods (years) which is determined by the coefficient value of 0.293276 with the tstatistic value of 8.696093 > t table 1.94318. This means that changes in economic growth of 1% will increase the open unemployment rate by 0.293276. (3) The three, previous Mininum Wages 2 periods (years) affect the Open unemployment rate for the next 3 periods (years) which is determined by the coefficient value of 0.911151 with a tstatistic value of 49.83026 > t table of 1.94318. This means that the change in minimum wage by 1% will increase the open unemployment rate by 0.911151. (4) The fourth, the human Development Index for 2 periods (years) previously affected the open unemployment rate for the next 4 periods (years) which was determined by the coefficient value of 1.117429 with a tstatistic value of 12.54998 > t ttable 1.94318. This means that the change in the human development index by 1% will increase the open unemployment rate by 1.117429.